⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Ascoli 1–1 US Lecce

← Serie B 2021 · Sat, Oct 16, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Dionisi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
US Lecce win46%2.15
Draw27%3.57
Ascoli win26%3.80

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ascoli +0.553%1.83
US Lecce +0.547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.78
Under46%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Gabriel Strefezza · US Lecce
30'🟨Massimo Coda · US Lecce
31'🟨Mirko Eramo · Ascoli
45'🟨Valentin Gendrey · US Lecce
50'🟨Dario Šarić · Ascoli
73'🟨Soufiane Bidaoui · Ascoli
74'⚽Atanas Iliev · Ascoli
87'🟨Abdelhamid Sabiri · Ascoli
90'🟨Diego Fabbrini · Ascoli

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots9
5On target6
4Corners2
27Fouls22
5Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAscoliUS Lecce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.610.72
cards avg (last 5)2.601.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca
coach days319.00107.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.602.60
corners against avg (last 5)7.203.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.606.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.002.46
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.07
dominance (last 5)0.510.64
elo1459.391574.30
elo momentum (last 5)5.2149.59
eye test v10.330.31
eye trend v10.04-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)56.3057.10
form points (last 5)7.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.001.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.26
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.740.65
league points13.0014.00
league rank8.006.00
matches since blank3.004.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6070.80
possession avg (last 5)49.2044.60
rest days14.0014.73
scorer concentration0.300.36
season ppg1.862.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.206.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.0015.60
skill v10.31-0.88
sot against avg (last 5)5.602.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.004.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.80
squad age28.0927.14
state index-0.090.95
sterile dominance v1-0.25-1.32
threat rate (last 10)0.290.28
threat rate (last 3)0.330.29
threat rate (last 5)0.290.35
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40