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Cosenza 2–0 Como 1907

← Serie B 2021 Β· Tue, Sep 21, 06:30 PM UTC Β· ref: J. Sacchi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Como 1907 win37%2.71
Cosenza win33%2.99
Draw30%3.20

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Como 1907 +053%1.86
Cosenza +047%2.05

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.63
Over41%2.39

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Gabriele Gori · Cosenza
40'🟨Alessandro Bellemo · Como 1907
45'🟨Filippo Scaglia · Como 1907
50'🟨Alberto Gerbo · Cosenza
52'🟨Giuseppe Caso · Cosenza
65'🟨Matteo Solini · Como 1907
88'🟨Antonino La Gumina · Como 1907
90'🟨Vincenzo Millico · Cosenza
90'🟨Alessandro Gabrielloni · Como 1907
90'⚽Vincenzo Millico · Cosenza

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
6Shots12
5On target3
1Corners7
20Fouls14
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricCosenzaComo 1907
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.34β€”
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.540.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.520.73
cards avg (last 5)2.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla
coach days51.00294.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.08β€”
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40β€”
corners against avg (last 5)3.40β€”
corners for avg (last 5)3.00β€”
corners volatility (last 10)2.32β€”
defensive leak (last 5)0.12β€”
dominance (last 5)0.40β€”
elo1384.191319.08
elo momentum (last 5)6.54-14.18
eye test v1-0.200.07
eye trend v10.99β€”
first sub minute (last 10)59.3063.50
form points (last 5)7.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.101.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
keeper form v10.720.63
league points7.002.00
league rank10.0016.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet8.005.00
matches since win1.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2076.50
possession avg (last 5)44.6046.25
rest days3.274.10
season ppg1.400.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.20β€”
shots for avg (last 5)10.20β€”
skill v1-0.39-0.26
sot against avg (last 5)5.604.75
sot for avg (last 10)3.00β€”
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.50
squad age26.2526.09
state index-0.46-1.12
sterile dominance v1-0.28-0.37
threat rate (last 10)0.21β€”
threat rate (last 3)0.290.25
threat rate (last 5)0.240.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.60