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Crotone 1–1 Reggina

← Serie B 2021 · Sat, Sep 11, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Fabbri

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Crotone win41%2.35
Draw30%3.25
Reggina win29%3.45

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Crotone −0.2550%1.93
Reggina −0.2550%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.76
Over46%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Nahuel Estévez · Crotone
22'🟨Gianluca Di Chiara · Reggina
35'🟨Lorenzo Crisetig · Reggina
43'⚽Andrej Gălăbinov · Reggina
58'⚽Ahmad Benali · Crotone
77'🟨Përparim Hetemaj · Reggina
81'🟨Santiago Visentin · Crotone
83'🟨Dimitrios Stavropoulos · Reggina

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots6
3On target2
9Corners1
20Fouls15
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCrotoneReggina
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.570.67
cards avg (last 5)2.803.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Ezio Scida
coach days194.00102.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.202.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.403.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.206.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.971.89
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.12
dominance (last 5)0.450.47
elo1495.151457.14
elo momentum (last 5)-0.43-16.32
eye test v1-0.180.07
eye trend v10.270.09
first sub minute (last 10)58.5049.70
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.321.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.650.59
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.2074.40
possession avg (last 5)50.8049.60
rest days13.0212.92
season ppg0.502.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.00-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.8012.40
skill v10.47-0.23
sot against avg (last 5)5.606.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.104.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.60
squad age25.0529.40
state index-0.31-0.37
sterile dominance v10.33-0.19
threat rate (last 10)0.210.21
threat rate (last 3)0.270.25
threat rate (last 5)0.230.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20