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Benevento 4–3 Alessandria

← Serie B 2021 Β· Sun, Aug 22, 06:30 PM UTC Β· ref: M. Di Bello

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Benevento win57%1.70
Draw26%3.84
Alessandria win17%5.50

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Benevento βˆ’0.7551%1.92
Alessandria βˆ’0.7549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.91
Over49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Simone Corazza · Alessandria
14'🟨Simone Benedetti · Alessandria
23'⚽ (pen)Roberto Insigne · Benevento
33'🟨Abou Ba · Alessandria
34'🟨Riccardo Improta · Benevento
40'⚽Simone Corazza · Alessandria
45'⚽ (og)Luca Parodi · Benevento
48'⚽Daam Foulon · Benevento
55'⚽Riccardo Improta · Benevento
71'🟨Salvatore Elia · Benevento
83'⚽ (pen)

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
14Shots12
5On target5
5Corners7
12Fouls16
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBeneventoAlessandria
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.38β€”
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.25β€”
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.37β€”
blown lead rate (last 20)0.20β€”
box share (last 5)0.78β€”
cards avg (last 5)2.40β€”
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadio Ciro Vigorito
Simone Corazza
Β· Alessandria
88'🟨Gennaro Acampora · Benevento
90'🟨Luca Parodi · Alessandria
90'🟨Edoardo Pierozzi · Alessandria
coach days82.00233.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00β€”
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.06β€”
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60β€”
corners against avg (last 5)6.00β€”
corners for avg (last 5)5.40β€”
corners volatility (last 10)3.12β€”
defensive leak (last 5)0.18β€”
dominance (last 5)0.46β€”
elo1551.381500.00
elo momentum (last 5)-20.76β€”
eye test v1-0.18β€”
eye trend v1-0.36β€”
first sub minute (last 10)46.90β€”
form points (last 5)2.00β€”
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20β€”
goals against avg (last 5)1.80β€”
goals for avg (last 5)0.60β€”
goals volatility (last 10)1.03β€”
h2 goals (last 10)0.50β€”
ht lead rate (last 20)0.20β€”
keeper form v10.79β€”
matches since blank2.00β€”
matches since clean sheet10.00β€”
matches since win10.00β€”
pass acc avg (last 5)81.60β€”
possession avg (last 5)46.20β€”
rest days30.00β€”
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.40β€”
shots for avg (last 5)10.40β€”
skill v10.19β€”
sot against avg (last 5)5.00β€”
sot for avg (last 10)4.10β€”
sot for avg (last 3)3.67β€”
sot for avg (last 5)3.80β€”
state index-0.77-0.01
sterile dominance v10.16β€”
threat rate (last 10)0.26β€”
threat rate (last 3)0.23β€”
threat rate (last 5)0.22β€”
venue ppg (last 5)0.40β€”