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Crotone 2–2 Como 1907

← Serie B 2021 Β· Sun, Aug 22, 06:30 PM UTC Β· ref: D. Doveri

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Crotone win51%1.99
Draw28%3.50
Como 1907 win21%4.60

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Como 1907 βˆ’0.551%1.92
Crotone βˆ’0.549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.88
Over48%2.02

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'🟨Santiago Visentin · Crotone
13'🟨Dario Toninelli · Como 1907
30'🟨Filippo Scaglia · Como 1907
38'🟨Ismail H'Maidat · Como 1907
49'⚽Samuele Mulattieri · Crotone
53'⚽Alessio Iovine · Como 1907
57'🟨MiloΕ‘ VuliΔ‡ Β· Crotone
66'⚽Samuele Mulattieri · Crotone
78'🟨Salvatore Molina · Crotone
79'⚽ (pen)Ettore Gliozzi · Como 1907
88'🟨Ettore Gliozzi · Como 1907
90'🟨Davide Mondonico · Crotone

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
19Shots13
5On target4
7Corners3
16Fouls12
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricCrotoneComo 1907
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.38β€”
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.36β€”
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.31β€”
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.56β€”
cards avg (last 5)1.800.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadio Ezio Scida
coach days174.00264.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.08β€”
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.60β€”
corners against avg (last 5)8.20β€”
corners for avg (last 5)3.60β€”
corners volatility (last 10)1.83β€”
defensive leak (last 5)0.10β€”
dominance (last 5)0.34β€”
elo1513.731325.92
elo momentum (last 5)11.3013.01
eye test v1-0.85β€”
eye trend v10.05β€”
first sub minute (last 10)53.90β€”
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.421.15
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.40β€”
possession avg (last 5)42.60β€”
rest days30.0030.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-8.80β€”
shots for avg (last 5)8.00β€”
skill v10.13β€”
sot against avg (last 5)5.60β€”
sot for avg (last 10)3.10β€”
sot for avg (last 3)3.00β€”
sot for avg (last 5)2.40β€”
squad age27.41β€”
state index-0.34-0.54
sterile dominance v10.32β€”
threat rate (last 10)0.20β€”
threat rate (last 3)0.20β€”
threat rate (last 5)0.19β€”
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.20