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Trabzonspor 5–1 Alanyaspor

← Süper Lig 2022 · Sat, Jun 3, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: Y. Uğurlu

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win68%1.38
Draw18%5.98
Alanyaspor win14%7.26

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor −1.551%1.94
Alanyaspor −1.549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over74%1.29
Under26%3.79

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Umut Güneş · Alanyaspor
18'⚽Mahmoud Trézéguet · Trabzonspor
23'🟥Fatih Aksoy · Alanyaspor
24'⚽ (pen)Marek Hamšík · Trabzonspor
32'⚽Anastasios Bakasetas · Trabzonspor
35'⚽Jens Stryger Larsen · Trabzonspor
58'⚽Umut Bozok · Trabzonspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

4Half-time score1
23Shots6
10On target4
5Corners2
7Fouls9
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTrabzonsporAlanyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.500.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.620.55
cards avg (last 5)2.001.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueŞenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi
coach days63.0063.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.18
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.204.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.403.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.831.84
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.12
dominance (last 5)0.580.40
elo1624.641494.32
elo momentum (last 5)18.55-29.23
eye test v10.64-0.02
eye trend v10.530.49
first sub minute (last 10)55.4053.40
form points (last 5)9.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.581.17
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.35
keeper form v10.690.58
league points62.0046.00
league rank7.0014.00
matches since blank6.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.2077.60
possession avg (last 5)49.8043.60
rest days3.963.96
scorer concentration0.180.22
season ppg1.511.07
shot diff avg (last 5)4.00-5.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.6010.80
skill v10.49-0.32
sot against avg (last 5)3.605.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.10
sot for avg (last 3)7.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.80
squad age28.5427.36
state index0.64-0.67
sterile dominance v1-0.02-0.41
threat rate (last 10)0.250.22
threat rate (last 3)0.300.27
threat rate (last 5)0.280.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.20