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Karagumruk 2–0 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2022 · Tue, May 30, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Erdoğan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karagumruk win43%2.30
Kayserispor win33%2.88
Draw23%4.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor −0.2552%1.88
Karagumruk −0.2548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over68%1.41
Under32%3.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟥Yaw Ackah · Kayserispor
16'⚽Kerim Frei · Karagumruk
28'⚽Kerim Frei · Karagumruk
57'🟨Andrea Bertolacci · Karagumruk
77'🟨Ibrahim Drešević · Karagumruk
82'🟨Miguel Cardoso · Kayserispor
86'🟨Bernard Mensah · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
19Shots7
6On target0
4Corners4
7Fouls11
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKaragumrukKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.460.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.00
box share (last 5)0.620.57
cards avg (last 5)1.001.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBaşakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu
coach days29.00363.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.202.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.603.60
corners for avg (last 5)2.405.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.703.08
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.28
dominance (last 5)0.370.49
elo1579.311537.30
elo momentum (last 5)-39.34-32.86
eye test v10.19-0.56
eye trend v1-0.410.04
first sub minute (last 10)63.0055.40
form points (last 5)3.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.203.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.51
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.20
keeper form v1—0.62
league points48.0060.00
league rank12.007.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0083.60
possession avg (last 5)51.0054.40
rest days8.0010.04
scorer concentration0.330.17
season ppg1.201.46
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.60-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.8011.40
skill v10.370.91
sot against avg (last 5)6.006.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.103.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.602.80
squad age27.3930.10
state index-0.64-0.66
sterile dominance v10.500.82
threat rate (last 10)0.220.25
threat rate (last 3)0.180.22
threat rate (last 5)0.210.21
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.20