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Konyaspor 2–2 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2022 · Sun, May 7, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Numanoğlu

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor win56%1.72
Draw23%4.28
Kayserispor win21%4.60

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor −0.7551%1.92
Kayserispor −0.7549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.57
Under39%2.51

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

38'🟨Ahmet Oğuz · Konyaspor
41'🟨Gökhan Sazdağı · Kayserispor
46'⚽Miguel Cardoso · Kayserispor
48'⚽Uğurcan Yazğılı · Konyaspor
52'⚽Miguel Cardoso · Kayserispor
55'⚽Soner Dikmen · Konyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
7Shots8
3On target4
3Corners7
14Fouls7
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKonyasporKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.660.68
cards avg (last 5)1.201.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKonya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu
coach days126.00340.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d6.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.600.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.803.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.203.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.522.68
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.14
dominance (last 5)0.540.41
elo1612.811559.21
elo momentum (last 5)8.78-13.19
eye test v1-0.18-0.37
eye trend v1-0.12-0.25
first sub minute (last 10)50.2057.30
form points (last 5)9.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.631.66
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.72—
league points54.0059.00
league rank8.007.00
matches since blank11.003.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.0079.40
possession avg (last 5)54.2047.00
rest days8.006.83
scorer concentration0.310.17
season ppg1.381.51
shot diff avg (last 5)1.40-6.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.8012.40
skill v10.670.06
sot against avg (last 5)4.607.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.303.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.20
squad age30.2627.20
state index0.20-0.35
sterile dominance v10.44-0.23
threat rate (last 10)0.280.27
threat rate (last 3)0.270.21
threat rate (last 5)0.240.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.60