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İstanbulspor 1–0 Giresunspor

← Süper Lig 2022 · Mon, May 1, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Kalkavan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
İstanbulspor win42%2.38
Giresunspor win32%3.00
Draw27%3.69

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Giresunspor −0.2553%1.85
İstanbulspor −0.2547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.70
Under43%2.25

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Emeka Eze · İstanbulspor
49'🟥Simon Deli · İstanbulspor
51'🟨Onur Ergün · İstanbulspor
52'🟨Hayrullah Bilazer · Giresunspor
88'🟨Jetmir Topalli · İstanbulspor
90'🟨Okan Erdoğan · İstanbulspor
90'🟨Borja Sainz · Giresunspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
5Shots20
2On target6
3Corners4
5Fouls12
3Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricİstanbulsporGiresunspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.470.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.590.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.530.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.660.61
cards avg (last 5)3.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNecmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu
coach days212.00120.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.210.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.000.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.204.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.205.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.013.33
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.16
dominance (last 5)0.430.45
elo1474.491431.43
elo momentum (last 5)27.10-25.80
eye test v10.38-0.08
eye trend v10.22-0.00
first sub minute (last 10)60.1051.00
form points (last 5)8.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.060.67
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.450.59
league points35.0034.00
league rank17.0018.00
matches since blank5.007.00
matches since clean sheet2.003.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0074.80
possession avg (last 5)39.6043.60
rest days7.007.13
scorer concentration0.290.32
season ppg1.030.92
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.40-0.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.6013.40
skill v1-0.80-0.56
sot against avg (last 5)5.406.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.80
squad age26.4127.07
state index-0.05-1.02
sterile dominance v1-0.60-0.74
threat rate (last 10)0.230.28
threat rate (last 3)0.240.27
threat rate (last 5)0.240.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.20