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Sivasspor 4–1 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2022 · Thu, Apr 20, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Şimşek

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor win39%2.50
Trabzonspor win31%3.35
Draw30%3.23

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor −0.2552%1.88
Sivasspor −0.2548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.78
Over46%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Lazar Marković · Trabzonspor
22'🟥Jens Stryger Larsen · Trabzonspor
27'⚽ (pen)Samu Sáiz · Sivasspor
37'⚽Erdoğan Yeşilyurt · Sivasspor
49'🟨Ziya Erdal · Sivasspor
58'⚽Samu Sáiz · Sivasspor
75'🟨Stefano Denswil · Trabzonspor
90'⚽Jordy Caicedo · Sivasspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
18Shots4
10On target2
6Corners1
10Fouls11
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSivassporTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.570.62
cards avg (last 5)0.800.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu
coach days1419.0019.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.09
corner diff avg (last 5)1.200.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.805.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.511.57
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.13
dominance (last 5)0.590.52
elo1547.461624.44
elo momentum (last 5)16.14-35.26
eye test v10.030.64
eye trend v10.27-0.30
first sub minute (last 10)55.2046.70
form points (last 5)8.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.141.71
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.40
keeper form v10.600.77
league points38.0053.00
league rank13.008.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win3.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0084.40
possession avg (last 5)50.8059.00
rest days4.194.00
scorer concentration0.190.17
season ppg1.121.51
shot diff avg (last 5)5.202.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.6016.80
skill v10.101.28
sot against avg (last 5)3.805.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.305.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.005.20
squad age31.3827.90
state index0.22-0.34
sterile dominance v1-0.010.50
threat rate (last 10)0.290.29
threat rate (last 3)0.340.27
threat rate (last 5)0.260.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.60