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Ankaragücü 3–1 Giresunspor

← Süper Lig 2022 · Thu, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Meler

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ankaragücü win55%1.73
Draw24%4.08
Giresunspor win20%4.97

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ankaragücü −0.7551%1.90
Giresunspor −0.7549%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.65
Under41%2.34

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

44'⚽ (og)Lamine Diack · Giresunspor
45'🟨Ferhat Kaplan · Giresunspor
54'⚽Ali Sowe · Ankaragücü
56'🟨Ramón Arias · Giresunspor
74'⚽Taylan Antalyalı · Ankaragücü
82'🟨Matěj Hanousek · Ankaragücü
90'⚽Ali Sowe · Ankaragücü

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
20Shots3
6On target0
6Corners2
8Fouls6
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAnkaragücüGiresunspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.35—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.42—
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.34—
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.65—
cards avg (last 5)2.003.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEryaman Stadyumu
coach days50.00109.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.15
corner diff avg (last 5)1.80-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.203.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.913.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.11
dominance (last 5)0.410.40
elo1447.081464.53
elo momentum (last 5)-10.3614.33
eye test v1-0.15-0.69
eye trend v1-0.08-0.11
first sub minute (last 10)56.2051.00
form points (last 5)3.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v1—0.74
league points29.0034.00
league rank20.0016.00
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.8073.60
possession avg (last 5)46.2039.00
rest days4.854.04
scorer concentration0.370.35
season ppg0.911.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.40-3.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.0010.00
skill v1-0.39-0.97
sot against avg (last 5)6.805.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.603.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.00
squad age27.3227.25
state index-0.45-0.32
sterile dominance v1-0.40-0.70
threat rate (last 10)0.270.30
threat rate (last 3)0.240.30
threat rate (last 5)0.260.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.40