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İstanbulspor 3–3 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2022 · Wed, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Y. Arslan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor win43%2.22
İstanbulspor win29%3.48
Draw28%3.44

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor +0.2551%1.91
İstanbulspor +0.2549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.87
Over48%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Eduart Rroca · İstanbulspor
31'🟨Jason Lokilo · İstanbulspor
42'⚽Fernando · Antalyaspor
45'⚽Mahamadou Ba · İstanbulspor
47'🟨Valon Ethemi · İstanbulspor
51'⚽Haji Wright · Antalyaspor
55'⚽Onur Ergün · İstanbulspor
63'🟨Mahamadou Ba · İstanbulspor
74'🟨Tuncer Duhan Aksu · İstanbulspor
79'🟨Fredy · Antalyaspor
84'🟨Demeaco Duhaney

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
8Shots17
6On target6
3Corners5
19Fouls10
8Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricİstanbulsporAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.620.57
cards avg (last 5)2.601.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNecmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu
· İstanbulspor
87'🟨David Jensen · İstanbulspor
88'⚽ (pen)Haji Wright · Antalyaspor
90'🟨Simon Deli · İstanbulspor
90'🟨Onur Ergün · İstanbulspor
coach days200.00565.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.800.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.203.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.403.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.062.21
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.12
dominance (last 5)0.500.57
elo1466.721520.45
elo momentum (last 5)6.7421.01
eye test v1-0.010.34
eye trend v10.170.11
first sub minute (last 10)56.6059.70
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.37
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.730.69
league points33.0032.00
league rank16.0018.00
matches since blank3.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0080.40
possession avg (last 5)41.2051.20
rest days4.044.85
scorer concentration0.310.36
season ppg1.030.94
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.203.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.2013.80
skill v1-0.520.42
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.804.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.80
squad age27.0028.14
state index-0.050.14
sterile dominance v1-0.48-0.08
threat rate (last 10)0.230.24
threat rate (last 3)0.240.24
threat rate (last 5)0.250.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.20