⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Kayserispor 3–1 Ümraniyespor

← Süper Lig 2022 · Mon, Apr 10, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Z. Küçük

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor win51%1.89
Draw25%3.88
Ümraniyespor win24%4.12

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor −0.552%1.89
Ümraniyespor −0.548%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.59
Under40%2.43

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'⚽ (pen)Mame Thiam · Kayserispor
44'🟨Olivier Kemen · Kayserispor
45'⚽Umut Nayir · Ümraniyespor
53'⚽Bernard Mensah · Kayserispor
59'🟨Antonio Mršić · Ümraniyespor
87'🟨Isaac Sackey · Ümraniyespor
90'🟨Miguel Cardoso · Kayserispor
90'🟨Yaw Ackah · Kayserispor
90'🟨İlhan Parlak · Kayserispor
90'🟨Isaac Sackey · Ümraniyespor
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
18Shots20
5On target5
5Corners7
22Fouls12
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporÜmraniyespor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.54
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.590.81
cards avg (last 5)1.601.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu
Kartal Kayra Yılmaz
· Ümraniyespor
90'🟥Isaac Sackey · Ümraniyespor
90'⚽Carlos Mané · Kayserispor
coach days313.00921.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.21
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.80-3.00
corners against avg (last 5)7.407.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.502.37
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.08
dominance (last 5)0.360.31
elo1583.851490.75
elo momentum (last 5)6.3539.04
eye test v1-0.460.31
eye trend v1-0.27-0.09
first sub minute (last 10)56.6055.40
form points (last 5)9.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.630.79
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.10
keeper form v10.610.75
league points51.0028.00
league rank6.0020.00
matches since blank2.0012.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4070.00
possession avg (last 5)45.2035.60
rest days9.008.10
scorer concentration0.140.35
season ppg1.650.82
shot diff avg (last 5)-9.40-12.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.009.60
skill v1-0.23-1.50
sot against avg (last 5)5.807.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.80
squad age27.9129.98
state index0.170.03
sterile dominance v1-0.46-1.20
threat rate (last 10)0.270.26
threat rate (last 3)0.270.25
threat rate (last 5)0.280.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00