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Ankaragücü 3–2 İstanbulspor

← Süper Lig 2022 · Sat, Apr 8, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Filiz

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ankaragücü win55%1.73
Draw25%4.11
İstanbulspor win20%4.82

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ankaragücü −0.7551%1.93
İstanbulspor −0.7549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.72
Under44%2.21

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Ali Sowe · Ankaragücü
24'⚽Lamine Diack · Ankaragücü
28'🟨Valon Ethemi · İstanbulspor
47'⚽Kerem Şen · İstanbulspor
51'🟨Muammer Sarıkaya · İstanbulspor
53'⚽Ali Sowe · Ankaragücü
55'⚽Jason Lokilo · İstanbulspor
74'🟨Mehmet Yeşil · İstanbulspor
77'🟨Mahamadou Ba · İstanbulspor
84'🟨Taylan Antalyalı · Ankaragücü

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
9Shots13
6On target8
8Corners4
16Fouls17
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAnkaragücüİstanbulspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.620.58
cards avg (last 5)1.002.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEryaman Stadyumu
coach days38.00189.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.17
corner diff avg (last 5)2.40-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)2.606.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.003.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.592.46
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.08
dominance (last 5)0.410.46
elo1440.661447.39
elo momentum (last 5)-2.7235.39
eye test v1-0.30-0.47
eye trend v1-0.250.08
first sub minute (last 10)59.7058.50
form points (last 5)3.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v10.750.70
league points26.0027.00
league rank23.0021.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0076.80
possession avg (last 5)51.4040.60
rest days7.004.81
scorer concentration0.300.35
season ppg0.870.93
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.40-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.0010.00
skill v10.31-0.58
sot against avg (last 5)6.205.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.303.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.20
squad age27.6925.49
state index-0.500.05
sterile dominance v10.13-0.30
threat rate (last 10)0.280.22
threat rate (last 3)0.270.25
threat rate (last 5)0.250.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20