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İstanbulspor 0–1 Karagumruk

← Süper Lig 2022 · Mon, Apr 3, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Karaoğlan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karagumruk win43%2.26
İstanbulspor win31%3.19
Draw27%3.69

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
İstanbulspor +0.2550%1.94
Karagumruk +0.2550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.74
Under45%2.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

27'⚽Mbaye Diagne · Karagumruk
30'🟨Emir Kaan Gültekin · İstanbulspor
44'🟨Matteo Ricci · Karagumruk
50'🟨Florian Loshaj · İstanbulspor
58'🟨Jason Lokilo · İstanbulspor
75'🟨Emeka Eze · İstanbulspor
80'🟨Ali Yaşar · İstanbulspor
90'🟨Davide Biraschi · Karagumruk
90'🟨Davide Biraschi · Karagumruk
90'🟥Davide Biraschi · Karagumruk

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
11Shots11
3On target5
8Corners3
11Fouls19
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricİstanbulsporKaragumruk
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.48
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.47
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.630.61
cards avg (last 5)1.401.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNecmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu
coach days184.00306.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.220.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.60-3.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.806.20
corners for avg (last 5)2.202.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.992.67
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.16
dominance (last 5)0.430.52
elo1455.381585.85
elo momentum (last 5)30.7818.90
eye test v1-0.500.47
eye trend v10.22-0.14
first sub minute (last 10)60.9066.00
form points (last 5)9.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
keeper form v10.690.65
league points27.0034.00
league rank21.0013.00
matches since blank5.0016.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.6081.80
possession avg (last 5)39.6051.60
rest days16.0615.19
scorer concentration0.350.29
season ppg0.961.17
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.200.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.4013.20
skill v1-0.750.57
sot against avg (last 5)5.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.205.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.336.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.205.00
squad age26.1727.32
state index0.130.28
sterile dominance v1-0.340.12
threat rate (last 10)0.220.25
threat rate (last 3)0.240.23
threat rate (last 5)0.210.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40