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Giresunspor 2–2 Alanyaspor

← Süper Lig 2022 · Sun, Apr 2, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Doman

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Giresunspor win42%2.30
Alanyaspor win31%3.17
Draw27%3.64

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor −0.2551%1.93
Giresunspor −0.2549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.77
Under45%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽Efecan Karaca · Alanyaspor
35'🟨Serginho · Giresunspor
48'🟨Jorman Campuzano · Giresunspor
56'🟨Rúnar Alex Rúnarsson · Alanyaspor
73'⚽Zinedine Ferhat · Alanyaspor
76'🟨Pedro Pereira · Alanyaspor
84'⚽Doğan Can Davas · Giresunspor
88'⚽ (pen)Brandley Kuwas · Giresunspor
90'🟨Zinedine Ferhat · Alanyaspor
90'🟨Leroy Fer · Alanyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
22Shots10
7On target4
7Corners2
15Fouls20
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGiresunsporAlanyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.700.63
cards avg (last 5)2.201.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇotanak Stadyumu
coach days91.001.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d0.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.09
corner diff avg (last 5)1.60-2.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.206.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.463.21
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.18
dominance (last 5)0.440.42
elo1456.791532.16
elo momentum (last 5)-14.49-12.35
eye test v1-0.34-0.75
eye trend v1-0.14-0.17
first sub minute (last 10)55.2055.20
form points (last 5)2.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.80-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.48
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
keeper form v10.720.62
league points30.0033.00
league rank15.0014.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win12.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.8080.00
possession avg (last 5)43.4051.20
rest days22.8313.88
scorer concentration0.350.23
season ppg0.971.10
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.20-3.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.809.00
skill v1-0.580.39
sot against avg (last 5)6.405.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.332.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.402.60
squad age27.1527.41
state index-1.18-0.49
sterile dominance v1-0.610.73
threat rate (last 10)0.300.20
threat rate (last 3)0.270.18
threat rate (last 5)0.270.18
venue ppg (last 5)0.200.00