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Trabzonspor 3–4 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2022 · Sat, Apr 1, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Özdamar

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win65%1.49
Draw21%4.68
Kayserispor win14%6.91

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor −156%1.76
Kayserispor −144%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.68
Under43%2.27

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Emrah Başsan · Kayserispor
3'⚽Maximiliano Gómez · Trabzonspor
20'⚽Mame Thiam · Kayserispor
22'🟨Gökhan Sazdağı · Kayserispor
48'⚽ (pen)Bernard Mensah · Kayserispor
50'⚽Abdülkadir Ömür · Trabzonspor
54'⚽ (pen)Enis Bardhi · Trabzonspor
63'⚽Carlos Mané · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
21Shots14
6On target4
4Corners2
11Fouls12
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTrabzonsporKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.620.58
cards avg (last 5)0.801.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueŞenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi
coach days0.00304.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.11
corner diff avg (last 5)4.00-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.607.40
corners for avg (last 5)7.605.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.902.33
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.12
dominance (last 5)0.560.41
elo1670.681569.52
elo momentum (last 5)9.8616.51
eye test v10.93-0.22
eye trend v1-0.17-0.17
first sub minute (last 10)49.1053.80
form points (last 5)9.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.401.49
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.40
keeper form v1—0.69
league points52.0048.00
league rank5.006.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.8078.20
possession avg (last 5)62.4047.60
rest days12.7912.79
scorer concentration0.180.16
season ppg1.681.60
shot diff avg (last 5)2.60-6.60
shots for avg (last 5)17.0013.20
skill v11.36-0.00
sot against avg (last 5)5.605.20
sot for avg (last 10)6.104.20
sot for avg (last 3)6.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.003.60
squad age28.7127.77
state index0.820.12
sterile dominance v10.55-0.21
threat rate (last 10)0.280.26
threat rate (last 3)0.310.24
threat rate (last 5)0.290.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.20