⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Giresunspor 1–2 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2022 · Sat, Feb 25, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Şansalan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Giresunspor win42%2.30
Draw30%3.22
Kayserispor win28%3.54

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor −0.2550%1.95
Giresunspor −0.2550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.85
Over45%2.29

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Carlos Mané · Kayserispor
28'🟨Ali Karimi · Kayserispor
33'🟨Hayrullah Bilazer · Giresunspor
33'🟨Mame Thiam · Kayserispor
40'⚽Mame Thiam · Kayserispor
54'🟨Ramón Arias · Giresunspor
55'🟨Serginho · Giresunspor
58'🟨Bilal Bayazit · Kayserispor
58'🟨Majid Hosseini · Kayserispor
58'⚽Riad Bajić · Giresunspor
65'🟨Joseph Attamah

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
29Shots11
6On target5
9Corners4
16Fouls15
3Yellow cards7
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGiresunsporKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.670.53
cards avg (last 5)2.001.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇotanak Stadyumu
· Kayserispor
84'🟨Anthony Uzodimma · Kayserispor
90'🟨Ramazan Civelek · Kayserispor
coach days55.00269.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.14
corner diff avg (last 5)0.001.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.204.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.205.40
corners volatility (last 10)4.221.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.14
dominance (last 5)0.490.52
elo1458.501577.47
elo momentum (last 5)-41.5339.62
eye test v10.320.32
eye trend v1-0.29-0.06
first sub minute (last 10)61.3060.20
form points (last 5)1.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-3.201.00
goals against avg (last 5)3.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.602.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.34
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.45
keeper form v10.620.70
league points28.0042.00
league rank13.006.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet20.000.00
matches since win9.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.4082.00
possession avg (last 5)44.6053.60
rest days24.0823.08
scorer concentration0.330.17
season ppg1.001.62
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)15.6015.00
skill v1-0.680.70
sot against avg (last 5)5.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.80
state index-1.240.72
sterile dominance v1-1.240.26
threat rate (last 10)0.300.25
threat rate (last 3)0.300.28
threat rate (last 5)0.350.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.80