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Antalyaspor 1–0 Gaziantep

← Süper Lig 2022 · Sat, Feb 4, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Pakkan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor win50%1.91
Draw26%3.78
Gaziantep win23%4.33

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor −0.551%1.93
Gaziantep −0.549%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.85
Under48%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'🟨Furkan Soyalp · Gaziantep
29'⚽Fredy · Antalyaspor
34'🟨Sam Larsson · Antalyaspor
45'🟨Fernando · Antalyaspor
56'🟨Fredy · Antalyaspor
78'🟨Günay Güvenç · Gaziantep
85'🟨Lazar Marković · Gaziantep
90'🟨Ertuğrul Ersoy · Gaziantep
90'🟨Lazar Marković · Gaziantep
90'🟥Lazar Marković · Gaziantep

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots12
2On target3
5Corners7
14Fouls8
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporGaziantep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.670.64
cards avg (last 5)2.203.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCorendon Airlines Park
coach days491.00644.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.400.00
corners against avg (last 5)8.205.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.805.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.182.56
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.08
dominance (last 5)0.440.44
elo1509.241523.33
elo momentum (last 5)-10.1413.43
eye test v1-0.120.19
eye trend v10.180.07
first sub minute (last 10)51.1066.00
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
keeper form v10.770.69
league points21.0027.00
league rank22.0015.00
matches since blank0.0011.00
matches since clean sheet5.001.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.4075.80
possession avg (last 5)49.0046.20
rest days2.963.08
scorer concentration0.380.23
season ppg0.841.08
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.80-3.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.2011.40
skill v1-0.34-0.31
sot against avg (last 5)6.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.60
squad age28.7628.56
state index-0.330.05
sterile dominance v1-0.15-0.36
threat rate (last 10)0.230.27
threat rate (last 3)0.240.27
threat rate (last 5)0.240.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00