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Giresunspor 0–1 Ümraniyespor

← Süper Lig 2022 · Sun, Jan 8, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Saka

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Giresunspor win47%2.07
Ümraniyespor win27%3.70
Draw26%3.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Giresunspor −0.2554%1.79
Ümraniyespor −0.2546%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.79
Under46%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟥Anil Demir · Ümraniyespor
45'🟨Valentin Gheorghe · Ümraniyespor
54'🟨Oğuz Gürbulak · Ümraniyespor
83'⚽Antonio Mršić · Ümraniyespor
88'🟨Alexis Pérez · Giresunspor
90'🟨Vukan Savićević · Giresunspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
24Shots11
6On target2
14Corners7
10Fouls11
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGiresunsporÜmraniyespor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.05—
box share (last 5)0.480.59
cards avg (last 5)2.802.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇotanak Stadyumu
coach days7.00829.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.05—
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.603.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.512.08
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.14
dominance (last 5)0.440.47
elo1506.261446.76
elo momentum (last 5)26.65-0.01
eye test v1-0.180.22
eye trend v10.04-0.25
first sub minute (last 10)55.6055.70
form points (last 5)10.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.84
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.15—
keeper form v10.650.70
league points25.0011.00
league rank12.0023.00
matches since blank0.009.00
matches since clean sheet14.0020.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.8078.20
possession avg (last 5)43.2042.00
rest days2.834.96
scorer concentration0.330.31
season ppg1.250.55
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.40-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.0011.40
skill v1-0.42-0.37
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.804.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.60
squad age27.8430.19
state index0.04-0.46
sterile dominance v1-0.40-0.59
threat rate (last 10)0.250.27
threat rate (last 3)0.280.23
threat rate (last 5)0.250.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00