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Trabzonspor 3–0 Giresunspor

← Süper Lig 2022 · Thu, Jan 5, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Palabıyık

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win60%1.62
Draw24%4.02
Giresunspor win16%6.12

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Giresunspor −152%1.88
Trabzonspor −148%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.90
Under49%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Ramón Arias · Giresunspor
30'⚽ (og)Riad Bajić · Trabzonspor
61'🟨Manolis Siopis · Trabzonspor
62'🟨Maximiliano Gómez · Trabzonspor
69'⚽Maximiliano Gómez · Trabzonspor
75'⚽Haspolat Dogucan · Trabzonspor
79'🟨Murat Cem Akpinar · Giresunspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
17Shots5
8On target1
10Corners1
11Fouls9
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTrabzonsporGiresunspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.560.55
cards avg (last 5)2.202.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueŞenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi
coach days795.004.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.15
corner diff avg (last 5)1.401.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.203.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.605.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.002.31
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.13
dominance (last 5)0.590.49
elo1661.881514.40
elo momentum (last 5)-6.6228.93
eye test v11.060.19
eye trend v1-0.180.27
first sub minute (last 10)54.1057.90
form points (last 5)8.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.080.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.15
keeper form v10.700.64
league points28.0025.00
league rank9.0012.00
matches since blank9.007.00
matches since clean sheet1.0013.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.8076.40
possession avg (last 5)59.4044.80
rest days8.007.13
scorer concentration0.240.33
season ppg1.561.32
shot diff avg (last 5)5.20-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)15.2012.20
skill v11.17-0.35
sot against avg (last 5)2.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.803.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.404.40
squad age28.0927.48
state index0.540.14
sterile dominance v10.58-0.52
threat rate (last 10)0.270.24
threat rate (last 3)0.230.27
threat rate (last 5)0.270.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.80