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Giresunspor 2–1 Gaziantep

← Süper Lig 2022 · Thu, Dec 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Z. Küçük

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Giresunspor win43%2.27
Gaziantep win30%3.24
Draw27%3.57

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep −0.2551%1.95
Giresunspor −0.2549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.82
Under46%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Brandley Kuwas · Giresunspor
6'🟨Stelios Kitsiou · Gaziantep
23'🟨Ramón Arias · Giresunspor
24'⚽Serginho · Giresunspor
33'🟨Furkan Soyalp · Gaziantep
49'🟨Görkem Sağlam · Giresunspor
51'⚽Valmir Veliu · Gaziantep
56'🟨Borja Sainz · Giresunspor
79'🟨Papy Djilobodji · Gaziantep
80'🟨Vukan Savićević · Giresunspor
90'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots11
6On target6
6Corners3
13Fouls13
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGiresunsporGaziantep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.640.62
cards avg (last 5)1.803.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇotanak Stadyumu
Riad Bajić
· Giresunspor
coach days515.00607.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.12
corner diff avg (last 5)1.60-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.205.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.441.69
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.12
dominance (last 5)0.510.43
elo1505.921511.75
elo momentum (last 5)20.47-1.59
eye test v10.23-0.23
eye trend v10.210.25
first sub minute (last 10)57.1058.80
form points (last 5)7.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
keeper form v10.630.73
league points22.0018.00
league rank13.0015.00
matches since blank6.003.00
matches since clean sheet12.004.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.8079.00
possession avg (last 5)45.2043.40
rest days5.154.04
scorer concentration0.310.32
season ppg1.221.06
shot diff avg (last 5)0.80-4.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.0011.60
skill v1-0.52-0.24
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.60
state index0.08-0.34
sterile dominance v1-0.69-0.42
threat rate (last 10)0.240.24
threat rate (last 3)0.280.29
threat rate (last 5)0.290.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80