← Süper Lig 2022 · Wed, Dec 28, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Ü. Öztürk
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Trabzonspor win | 54% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.97 |
| Karagumruk win | 21% | 4.63 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Karagumruk +0.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Trabzonspor +0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.74 |
| Under | 45% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı |