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Alanyaspor 3–1 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2022 · Wed, Dec 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Numanoğlu

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win47%2.03
Kayserispor win28%3.49
Draw25%3.98

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor −0.552%1.88
Alanyaspor −0.548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.55
Under39%2.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Ahmed Hassan · Alanyaspor
29'🟨Bernard Mensah · Kayserispor
32'🟨Yusuf Özdemir · Alanyaspor
36'⚽Yusuf Özdemir · Alanyaspor
45'🟨Ivan Cavaleiro · Alanyaspor
59'⚽Ali Karimi · Kayserispor
61'🟨Lionel Carole · Kayserispor
72'⚽ (pen)Efecan Karaca · Alanyaspor
78'🟨Miguel Cardoso · Kayserispor
80'🟨Rúnar Alex Rúnarsson · Alanyaspor
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
5Shots14
3On target4
0Corners7
23Fouls18
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.620.70
cards avg (last 5)2.402.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKırbıyık Holding Stadyumu
Ali Karimi
· Kayserispor
coach days361.00210.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.603.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.207.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.591.43
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.10
dominance (last 5)0.490.48
elo1576.671579.85
elo momentum (last 5)-7.2921.17
eye test v10.420.00
eye trend v1-0.130.10
first sub minute (last 10)47.7058.50
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.060.52
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.50
keeper form v10.71—
league points20.0030.00
league rank14.002.00
matches since blank1.0012.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win4.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.4082.00
possession avg (last 5)59.4053.80
rest days3.0430.00
scorer concentration0.170.24
season ppg1.111.67
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.20-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.6013.40
skill v11.310.73
sot against avg (last 5)5.204.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.703.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.80
squad age26.7029.66
state index0.060.55
sterile dominance v11.050.30
threat rate (last 10)0.190.24
threat rate (last 3)0.220.21
threat rate (last 5)0.210.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.802.60