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Ümraniyespor 3–1 Alanyaspor

← Süper Lig 2022 · Fri, Nov 4, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Şansalan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ümraniyespor win37%2.60
Alanyaspor win35%2.77
Draw27%3.62

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ümraniyespor +052%1.88
Alanyaspor +048%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.74
Under45%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Leroy Fer · Alanyaspor
21'⚽Umut Nayir · Ümraniyespor
38'⚽Geraldo · Ümraniyespor
42'🟨Furkan Bayır · Alanyaspor
50'🟨Onur Atasayar · Ümraniyespor
56'⚽Wilson Eduardo · Alanyaspor
69'⚽Umut Nayir · Ümraniyespor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
12Shots8
6On target3
4Corners7
7Fouls12
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricÜmraniyesporAlanyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.50
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.47
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.00
box share (last 5)0.670.76
cards avg (last 5)2.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÜmraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu
coach days764.00307.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.05
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.15
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.205.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.204.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.722.87
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.10
dominance (last 5)0.500.46
elo1427.301594.14
elo momentum (last 5)-30.7512.63
eye test v10.090.63
eye trend v1-0.180.36
first sub minute (last 10)56.6042.50
form points (last 5)1.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.90
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.25
keeper form v10.500.73
league points3.0017.00
league rank23.0012.00
matches since blank3.004.00
matches since clean sheet14.000.00
matches since win14.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.0085.60
possession avg (last 5)49.4063.20
rest days5.136.00
scorer concentration0.250.19
season ppg0.211.21
shot diff avg (last 5)0.60-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.8011.00
skill v10.091.67
sot against avg (last 5)5.406.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.20
squad age28.5627.30
state index-1.370.11
sterile dominance v1-0.101.57
threat rate (last 10)0.270.18
threat rate (last 3)0.180.19
threat rate (last 5)0.260.18
venue ppg (last 5)0.200.40