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Antalyaspor 1–1 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2022 · Sat, Oct 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Güzenge

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor win36%2.74
Konyaspor win35%2.82
Draw29%3.30

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor +051%1.93
Konyaspor +049%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.74
Over45%2.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'🟨Francisco Calvo · Konyaspor
51'⚽Fernando · Antalyaspor
55'🟨Robert Murić · Konyaspor
63'🟨Luiz Adriano · Antalyaspor
65'🟨Sinan Gümüş · Antalyaspor
82'🟨Fernando · Antalyaspor
82'🟨Adil Demirbağ · Konyaspor
87'🟨Oğulcan Ülgün · Konyaspor
90'🟨Güray Vural · Antalyaspor
90'⚽Francisco Calvo · Konyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots11
3On target5
2Corners3
15Fouls12
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.660.64
cards avg (last 5)1.601.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCorendon Airlines Park
coach days372.00614.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.10
corner diff avg (last 5)3.40-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)2.606.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.005.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.633.57
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.02
dominance (last 5)0.470.52
elo1526.421639.54
elo momentum (last 5)-87.60-0.58
eye test v10.360.38
eye trend v1-0.170.22
first sub minute (last 10)54.1054.90
form points (last 5)0.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.621.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.45
keeper form v10.60—
league points6.0018.00
league rank20.004.00
matches since blank0.007.00
matches since clean sheet7.000.00
matches since win6.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.0085.80
possession avg (last 5)51.8051.00
rest days20.886.00
scorer concentration0.570.50
season ppg0.601.80
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.601.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.4012.80
skill v10.790.89
sot against avg (last 5)6.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.704.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.40
squad age29.5427.77
state index-1.310.49
sterile dominance v10.570.29
threat rate (last 10)0.270.26
threat rate (last 3)0.220.28
threat rate (last 5)0.220.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.40