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Karagumruk 1–2 İstanbulspor

← Süper Lig 2022 · Mon, Oct 3, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Şansalan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karagumruk win52%1.87
Draw25%3.85
İstanbulspor win22%4.26

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
İstanbulspor −0.7554%1.80
Karagumruk −0.7546%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.83
Under47%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

37'⚽Mbaye Diagne · Karagumruk
45'🟨Emir Kaan Gültekin · İstanbulspor
69'⚽Eduart Rroca · İstanbulspor
74'⚽Jetmir Topalli · İstanbulspor
84'🟨Emiliano Viviano · Karagumruk
89'🟨Mbaye Diagne · Karagumruk
89'🟨Eduart Rroca · İstanbulspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
7Shots15
2On target4
5Corners4
13Fouls7
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKaragumrukİstanbulspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.47
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.560.51
cards avg (last 5)2.202.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAtatürk Olimpiyat Stadı
coach days124.002.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.80-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.206.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.403.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.91—
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.15
dominance (last 5)0.530.46
elo1570.011440.01
elo momentum (last 5)17.715.66
eye test v10.04-0.46
eye trend v1-0.380.24
first sub minute (last 10)54.9058.17
form points (last 5)7.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.451.05
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.10
keeper form v10.700.66
league points7.005.00
league rank17.0019.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win4.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.0076.00
possession avg (last 5)48.8045.40
rest days15.1316.00
scorer concentration0.43—
season ppg1.000.83
shot diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.809.60
skill v10.50-0.35
sot against avg (last 5)3.605.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.20
squad age29.7526.23
state index0.25-0.34
sterile dominance v10.54-0.03
threat rate (last 10)0.250.19
threat rate (last 3)0.200.20
threat rate (last 5)0.200.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40