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Trabzonspor 3–2 Gaziantep

← Süper Lig 2022 · Sun, Sep 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Kalkavan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win57%1.68
Draw23%4.28
Gaziantep win20%4.92

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor −0.7553%1.87
Gaziantep −0.7547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.75
Under45%2.17

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Alexandru Maxim · Gaziantep
9'⚽Lazar Marković · Gaziantep
14'⚽Mahmoud Trézéguet · Trabzonspor
42'⚽ (pen)Anastasios Bakasetas · Trabzonspor
77'🟨Halil Ibrahim Pehlivan · Gaziantep
87'🟨Marc Bartra · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Uğurcan Çakır · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Ertuğrul Ersoy · Gaziantep
90'🟨Günay Güvenç · Gaziantep
90'⚽Marc Bartra · Trabzonspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
21Shots10
8On target3
9Corners2
9Fouls9
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTrabzonsporGaziantep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.56
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.48
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.480.66
cards avg (last 5)1.402.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueŞenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi
coach days686.00505.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d7.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.18
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.005.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.602.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.132.50
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.09
dominance (last 5)0.580.47
elo1677.871530.21
elo momentum (last 5)-24.2615.65
eye test v10.790.75
eye trend v1-0.11-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)47.5054.70
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.35
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.10
keeper form v10.590.69
league points11.0011.00
league rank12.0013.00
matches since blank5.008.00
matches since clean sheet4.005.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.0076.60
possession avg (last 5)60.0038.40
rest days2.896.88
scorer concentration0.290.40
season ppg1.381.57
shot diff avg (last 5)5.00-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)16.6012.20
skill v11.32-0.75
sot against avg (last 5)3.805.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.504.90
sot for avg (last 3)6.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.605.40
squad age28.6428.98
state index0.24-0.01
sterile dominance v10.52-1.25
threat rate (last 10)0.290.30
threat rate (last 3)0.260.25
threat rate (last 5)0.290.33
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.80