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Konyaspor 1–0 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2022 · Mon, Aug 29, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: A. Kardeşler

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win52%1.85
Draw25%3.94
Konyaspor win23%4.27

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce +0.552%1.85
Konyaspor +0.548%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.67
Under42%2.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'🟥Enner Valencia · Fenerbahce
24'🟨Adil Demirbağ · Konyaspor
54'🟨Adil Demirbağ · Konyaspor
54'🟥Adil Demirbağ · Konyaspor
66'⚽Muhammet Demir · Konyaspor
88'🟨Francisco Calvo · Konyaspor
90'🟨Soner Dikmen · Konyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
6Shots8
4On target2
4Corners2
8Fouls4
4Yellow cards0
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKonyasporFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
box share (last 5)0.720.73
cards avg (last 5)0.800.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni Eskişehir Stadyumu
coach days574.0089.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d5.008.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.19
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.602.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.202.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.604.20
corners volatility (last 10)5.013.50
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.09
dominance (last 5)0.530.65
elo1627.841768.47
elo momentum (last 5)-15.6039.80
eye test v1-0.081.81
eye trend v1-0.240.01
first sub minute (last 10)54.4064.60
form points (last 5)6.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.403.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.204.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.431.62
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.60
keeper form v10.720.77
league points6.0013.00
league rank14.001.00
matches since blank1.0010.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.8085.60
possession avg (last 5)51.2060.60
rest days7.003.97
scorer concentration—0.36
season ppg1.502.60
shot diff avg (last 5)1.409.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.4019.40
skill v10.641.51
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.906.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.677.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.008.00
squad age28.5426.52
state index0.271.48
sterile dominance v10.230.40
threat rate (last 10)0.260.26
threat rate (last 3)0.230.29
threat rate (last 5)0.260.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.602.60