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Karagumruk 4–1 Ankaragücü

← Süper Lig 2022 · Sat, Aug 27, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: Ç. Altay

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karagumruk win45%2.19
Ankaragücü win28%3.60
Draw27%3.68

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karagumruk −0.2553%1.90
Ankaragücü −0.2547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.80
Under46%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Salih Dursun · Karagumruk
9'⚽Fabio Borini · Karagumruk
45'🟨Pepê · Ankaragücü
48'⚽Fabio Borini · Karagumruk
53'⚽ (og)Rayyan Baniya · Ankaragücü
61'🟨Oğuz Ceylan · Ankaragücü
82'🟨Sinan Osmanoğlu · Ankaragücü
83'⚽ (pen)Mbaye Diagne · Karagumruk
90'🟨Otabek Shukurov · Karagumruk
90'🟨Ahmed Musa · Karagumruk

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
13Shots10
9On target4
0Corners7
9Fouls13
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKaragumrukAnkaragücü
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.18
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.500.64
cards avg (last 5)2.001.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAtatürk Olimpiyat Stadı
coach days87.0026.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.03
corner diff avg (last 5)1.000.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.603.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.604.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.661.52
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.10
dominance (last 5)0.520.43
elo1552.311431.64
elo momentum (last 5)-28.79-21.41
eye test v10.39-0.25
eye trend v10.01-0.43
first sub minute (last 10)55.1053.40
form points (last 5)4.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.160.52
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v10.67—
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win4.0012.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.8078.80
possession avg (last 5)50.2048.00
rest days5.9013.00
season ppg0.000.50
shot diff avg (last 5)0.80-4.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.4011.80
skill v10.670.07
sot against avg (last 5)5.406.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.60
squad age29.4027.50
state index-0.32-1.21
sterile dominance v1-0.04-0.20
threat rate (last 10)0.260.26
threat rate (last 3)0.280.20
threat rate (last 5)0.290.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.00