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Fenerbahce 3–3 Ümraniyespor

← Süper Lig 2022 · Mon, Aug 8, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Y. Uğurlu

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win73%1.33
Draw17%5.80
Ümraniyespor win10%9.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce −1.554%1.81
Ümraniyespor −1.546%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over65%1.47
Under35%2.81

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'🟨Willian Arão · Fenerbahce
19'⚽ (pen)Enner Valencia · Fenerbahce
22'🟨Enner Valencia · Fenerbahce
29'⚽Tomislav Glumac · Ümraniyespor
41'🟨Adel Bettaieb · Ümraniyespor
45'⚽Enner Valencia · Fenerbahce
67'⚽Valentin Gheorghe · Ümraniyespor
70'🟨Luan Peres · Fenerbahce
73'⚽ (pen)Antonio Mršić · Ümraniyespor
76'🟨Lincoln · Fenerbahce
76'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
17Shots10
6On target5
5Corners5
14Fouls13
7Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceÜmraniyespor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.42—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.35—
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.43—
blown lead rate (last 20)0.05—
box share (last 5)0.66—
cards avg (last 5)2.40—
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÜlker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi
Emre Nefiz
· Ümraniyespor
77'🟨Gustavo Henrique · Fenerbahce
83'🟨Mergim Berisha · Fenerbahce
90'🟨Ferdi Kadıoğlu · Fenerbahce
90'⚽Mergim Berisha · Fenerbahce
coach days68.00676.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.05—
congestion 21d1.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.16—
corner diff avg (last 5)2.40—
corners against avg (last 5)3.80—
corners for avg (last 5)6.20—
corners volatility (last 10)3.82—
defensive leak (last 5)0.07—
dominance (last 5)0.63—
elo1722.431500.00
elo momentum (last 5)8.73—
eye test v11.70—
eye trend v1-0.57—
first sub minute (last 10)61.40—
form points (last 5)11.00—
goal diff avg (last 5)1.80—
goals against avg (last 5)0.60—
goals for avg (last 5)2.40—
goals volatility (last 10)1.81—
h2 goals (last 10)1.90—
ht lead rate (last 20)0.50—
keeper form v10.82—
matches since blank2.00—
matches since clean sheet0.00—
matches since win0.00—
pass acc avg (last 5)87.60—
possession avg (last 5)61.60—
rest days4.07—
shot diff avg (last 5)8.40—
shots for avg (last 5)17.40—
skill v11.75—
sot against avg (last 5)3.40—
sot for avg (last 10)7.50—
sot for avg (last 3)6.67—
sot for avg (last 5)8.00—
squad age28.23—
state index1.26-0.01
sterile dominance v10.80—
threat rate (last 10)0.30—
threat rate (last 3)0.27—
threat rate (last 5)0.28—
venue ppg (last 5)2.60—