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Waregem 2–3 Club Brugge

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 · Sun, Apr 23, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: E. Lambrechts

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge win41%2.32
Waregem win34%2.85
Draw25%3.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Waregem +0.2552%1.85
Club Brugge +0.2548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over63%1.53
Under37%2.60

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Hugo Siquet · Club Brugge
8'⚽Ayase Ueda · Club Brugge
36'🟨Jelle Vossen · Waregem
45'🟨Alieu Fadera · Waregem
45'🟨Boris Popović · Club Brugge
59'⚽Lukas Willen · Waregem
68'⚽Alioune Ndour · Waregem
72'🟨Leonardo Lopes · Club Brugge
78'🟨Abu Francis · Club Brugge
83'⚽Thibo Somers · Club Brugge
86'🟨Charles Vanhoutte

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
11Shots22
3On target8
3Corners3
16Fouls21
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricWaregemClub Brugge
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.540.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.510.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.750.77
cards avg (last 5)1.802.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueElindus Arena
· Club Brugge
coach days53.00234.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.13
corner diff avg (last 5)0.806.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.802.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.609.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.605.66
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.08
dominance (last 5)0.410.71
elo1410.631646.65
elo momentum (last 5)11.965.52
eye test v10.34-0.27
eye trend v10.48-0.14
first sub minute (last 10)58.8066.20
form points (last 5)4.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.601.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.331.17
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.35
keeper form v10.610.76
league points28.00106.00
league rank18.001.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet16.000.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.6058.60
possession avg (last 5)38.4043.80
rest days8.107.91
scorer concentration0.220.34
season ppg0.761.56
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.8010.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.2017.20
skill v1-1.27-1.97
sot against avg (last 5)6.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.105.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.20
squad age27.0823.12
state index-0.560.59
sterile dominance v1-0.95-1.33
threat rate (last 10)0.240.33
threat rate (last 3)0.260.27
threat rate (last 5)0.260.29
venue ppg (last 5)0.400.80