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Genk 5–2 Anderlecht

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 · Sun, Apr 16, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: E. Lambrechts

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genk win47%2.06
Anderlecht win27%3.54
Draw26%3.75

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genk −0.2554%1.79
Anderlecht −0.2546%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.63
Under41%2.36

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Jan Vertonghen · Anderlecht
9'🟨Mark McKenzie · Genk
20'🟨Lior Refaelov · Anderlecht
31'🟨Ángelo Preciado · Genk
36'⚽Mbwana Samatta · Genk
43'⚽Islam Slimani · Anderlecht
45'⚽Aziz Ouattara Mohammed · Genk
49'⚽Joseph Paintsil · Genk
52'🟨Amadou Diawara · Anderlecht
53'⚽Bilal El Khannouss · Genk
64'⚽Anders Dreyer

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
14Shots13
9On target6
7Corners2
16Fouls17
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGenkAnderlecht
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.720.53
cards avg (last 5)2.200.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCegeka Arena
· Anderlecht
87'⚽Joseph Paintsil · Genk
coach days350.00136.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.07
corner diff avg (last 5)5.402.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.003.80
corners for avg (last 5)10.406.20
corners volatility (last 10)4.032.59
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.01
dominance (last 5)0.520.57
elo1728.951687.15
elo momentum (last 5)-26.1528.43
eye test v10.72-0.02
eye trend v10.16-0.35
first sub minute (last 10)57.9059.80
form points (last 5)7.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.201.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.070.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.35
keeper form v10.690.87
league points80.0051.00
league rank2.009.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4081.00
possession avg (last 5)60.0052.40
rest days6.792.69
scorer concentration0.190.15
season ppg2.221.42
shot diff avg (last 5)1.803.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.4013.80
skill v10.730.55
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.005.00
sot for avg (last 3)6.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.803.80
squad age24.2026.45
state index0.301.10
sterile dominance v10.500.33
threat rate (last 10)0.240.25
threat rate (last 3)0.310.22
threat rate (last 5)0.250.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.802.40