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Oostende 1–3 Standard

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 · Sat, Apr 1, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: K. Van Damme

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Standard win42%2.34
Oostende win31%3.10
Draw27%3.76

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oostende +0.2552%1.85
Standard +0.2548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.67
Under43%2.28

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Noah Ohio · Standard
11'🟨Cameron McGeehan · Oostende
11'⚽Noah Ohio · Standard
19'⚽Marlon Fossey · Standard
40'⚽Kelvin Arase · Oostende
45'🟨Sieben Dewaele · Oostende
59'🟥Osaze Urhoghide · Oostende
90'🟨Théo Ndicka Matam · Oostende
90'🟨Cihan Çanak · Standard

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score3
15Shots13
4On target7
6Corners7
11Fouls6
3Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOostendeStandard
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.550.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.470.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.670.74
cards avg (last 5)2.001.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueDiaz Arena
coach days151.00304.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.000.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.605.00
corners for avg (last 5)2.605.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.272.84
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.13
dominance (last 5)0.570.55
elo1445.591559.74
elo momentum (last 5)45.12-7.94
eye test v11.310.69
eye trend v10.630.20
first sub minute (last 10)51.4055.90
form points (last 5)7.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.431.35
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.35
keeper form v10.560.61
league points27.0049.00
league rank17.007.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.003.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)60.8079.00
possession avg (last 5)38.4051.80
rest days14.0613.96
scorer concentration0.200.14
season ppg0.821.48
shot diff avg (last 5)2.604.00
shots for avg (last 5)15.6015.60
skill v1-2.130.34
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.804.50
sot for avg (last 3)9.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)7.405.40
squad age25.5826.32
state index0.24-0.14
sterile dominance v1-2.48-0.15
threat rate (last 10)0.340.26
threat rate (last 3)0.450.34
threat rate (last 5)0.410.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00