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Gent 3–0 AS Eupen

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 Β· Sun, Mar 19, 06:15 PM UTC Β· ref: L. Visser

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gent win69%1.36
Draw19%5.28
AS Eupen win12%8.62

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AS Eupen βˆ’1.554%1.79
Gent βˆ’1.546%2.10

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.61
Under40%2.41

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Julien De Sart · Gent
45'⚽Hugo Cuypers · Gent
75'🟨Michael Ngadeu · Gent
77'⚽ (og)Jason Davidson · Gent
85'⚽Joseph Okumu · Gent

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
25Shots11
5On target3
16Corners5
6Fouls9
2Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricGentAS Eupen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.530.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.560.66
cards avg (last 5)0.401.40
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueGhelamco Arena
coach days838.00108.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.15
corner diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.302.32
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.16
dominance (last 5)0.500.41
elo1690.521457.20
elo momentum (last 5)22.634.90
eye test v10.34-0.54
eye trend v10.200.50
first sub minute (last 10)56.7046.90
form points (last 5)10.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.951.07
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.10
keeper form v10.600.66
league points55.0034.00
league rank5.0016.00
matches since blank4.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.0012.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6070.60
possession avg (last 5)56.2046.60
rest days4.058.04
scorer concentration0.250.23
season ppg1.671.06
shot diff avg (last 5)0.20-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.0011.80
skill v10.50-0.74
sot against avg (last 5)3.605.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.003.50
sot for avg (last 3)6.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.80
squad age26.6424.60
state index0.84-0.57
sterile dominance v10.74-0.26
threat rate (last 10)0.220.21
threat rate (last 3)0.200.26
threat rate (last 5)0.200.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.40