⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Standard 2–2 Waregem

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 · Sat, Mar 18, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Boterberg

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Standard win59%1.63
Draw23%4.30
Waregem win18%5.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Waregem −153%1.83
Standard −147%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.58
Under40%2.46

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Novatus Miroshi · Waregem
14'⚽Marlon Fossey · Standard
39'⚽Noe Dussenne · Standard
76'⚽Alieu Fadera · Waregem
79'🟨Konstantinos Laifis · Standard
85'⚽Alioune Ndour · Waregem
87'🟨Nicolas Rommens · Waregem
89'🟨Marlon Fossey · Standard
90'🟨Renaud Emond · Standard

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
21Shots9
8On target5
6Corners5
14Fouls12
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricStandardWaregem
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.730.79
cards avg (last 5)1.801.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Maurice Dufrasne
coach days290.0017.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.202.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.603.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.911.62
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.30
dominance (last 5)0.500.57
elo1565.651389.75
elo momentum (last 5)23.80-24.75
eye test v10.01-0.42
eye trend v10.230.46
first sub minute (last 10)54.6051.30
form points (last 5)7.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.603.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.350.84
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
keeper form v10.620.57
league points48.0024.00
league rank8.0018.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet2.0012.00
matches since win2.0010.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.0069.20
possession avg (last 5)49.8049.00
rest days6.306.20
scorer concentration0.150.19
season ppg1.500.73
shot diff avg (last 5)1.202.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.2011.60
skill v10.12-0.70
sot against avg (last 5)4.405.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.60
squad age26.4228.12
state index0.23-1.26
sterile dominance v1-0.04-0.35
threat rate (last 10)0.250.21
threat rate (last 3)0.290.28
threat rate (last 5)0.260.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80