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Oostende 1–2 Westerlo

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 · Sat, Mar 18, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: N. Laforge

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Westerlo win42%2.28
Oostende win31%3.11
Draw27%3.65

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oostende +0.2551%1.91
Westerlo +0.2549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.70
Under44%2.21

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Kyan Vaesen · Westerlo
16'🟨Théo Ndicka Matam · Oostende
45'🟨Roman Neustädter · Westerlo
50'🟨Maxim De Cuyper · Westerlo
81'⚽Cameron McGeehan · Oostende
90'⚽Lukas Van Eenoo · Westerlo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
22Shots7
12On target2
7Corners5
9Fouls9
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOostendeWesterlo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.25
box share (last 5)0.670.69
cards avg (last 5)1.801.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueDiaz Arena
coach days137.00625.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.25
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.80-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.205.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.404.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.183.31
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.09
dominance (last 5)0.500.38
elo1454.301559.34
elo momentum (last 5)55.9933.17
eye test v10.53-0.04
eye trend v10.28-0.15
first sub minute (last 10)49.4062.60
form points (last 5)8.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.002.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.511.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.60
keeper form v10.600.73
league points27.0048.00
league rank17.008.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)61.2077.80
possession avg (last 5)40.0047.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.210.18
season ppg0.841.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.00-7.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.209.20
skill v1-1.99-0.07
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.004.80
sot for avg (last 3)6.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.604.20
squad age25.9727.35
state index0.230.31
sterile dominance v1-1.730.27
threat rate (last 10)0.320.25
threat rate (last 3)0.380.21
threat rate (last 5)0.320.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.60