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Club Brugge 1–1 Genk

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 · Fri, Mar 17, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Lardot

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genk win38%2.55
Club Brugge win36%2.71
Draw26%3.67

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genk +051%1.88
Club Brugge +049%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.64
Under42%2.33

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

40'⚽Ayase Ueda · Club Brugge
54'⚽Joseph Paintsil · Genk
73'🟨Daniel Muñoz · Genk
77'🟨Abu Francis · Club Brugge
87'🟨Jesper Daland · Club Brugge

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
18Shots10
4On target2
6Corners9
5Fouls9
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClub BruggeGenk
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.50
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.650.63
cards avg (last 5)1.801.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJan Breydelstadion
coach days197.00320.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d6.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.15
corner diff avg (last 5)3.603.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.403.60
corners for avg (last 5)7.006.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.863.90
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.13
dominance (last 5)0.550.52
elo1631.771743.45
elo momentum (last 5)-11.17-31.86
eye test v10.420.16
eye trend v1-0.290.04
first sub minute (last 10)67.6061.70
form points (last 5)9.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.141.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.50
keeper form v10.690.69
league points89.0073.00
league rank1.002.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)59.8078.80
possession avg (last 5)47.2059.40
rest days5.065.09
scorer concentration0.330.20
season ppg1.532.28
shot diff avg (last 5)1.801.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.2012.00
skill v1-1.650.82
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.704.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.604.40
squad age23.1625.01
state index0.220.33
sterile dominance v1-1.570.85
threat rate (last 10)0.300.21
threat rate (last 3)0.260.17
threat rate (last 5)0.340.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.80