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AS Eupen 4–4 Oostende

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 · Sat, Mar 11, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: L. D'hondt

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AS Eupen win37%2.60
Oostende win35%2.76
Draw27%3.49

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AS Eupen +051%1.88
Oostende +049%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.79
Under46%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽ (pen)Thierry Ambrose · Oostende
16'🟨Anton Tanghe · Oostende
39'🟥Anton Tanghe · Oostende
45'⚽Djeidi Gassama · AS Eupen
46'🟨Cameron McGeehan · Oostende
56'⚽Théo Ndicka Matam · Oostende
58'🟨Fraser Hornby · Oostende
59'⚽Smail Prevljak · AS Eupen
61'⚽Fraser Hornby · Oostende
76'⚽Boris Lambert · AS Eupen
84'⚽Regan Charles-Cook · AS Eupen
90'⚽Matej Rodin · Oostende

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
29Shots14
10On target9
9Corners2
9Fouls10
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAS EupenOostende
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.660.60
cards avg (last 5)1.601.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadion am Kehrweg
coach days100.00130.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.80-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.404.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.603.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.763.26
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.12
dominance (last 5)0.340.53
elo1459.101452.41
elo momentum (last 5)7.2256.37
eye test v1-1.200.06
eye trend v1-0.140.24
first sub minute (last 10)48.4052.60
form points (last 5)5.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
keeper form v10.610.62
league points33.0026.00
league rank15.0017.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet11.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.4063.00
possession avg (last 5)41.8041.80
rest days5.967.90
scorer concentration0.260.19
season ppg1.060.84
shot diff avg (last 5)-7.001.80
shots for avg (last 5)7.4011.60
skill v1-1.07-1.72
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.804.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.404.60
squad age24.7125.74
state index-0.450.15
sterile dominance v1-0.10-1.31
threat rate (last 10)0.190.31
threat rate (last 3)0.160.37
threat rate (last 5)0.170.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.40