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Westerlo 3–1 Kortrijk

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 · Sat, Mar 11, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: W. De Cremer

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Westerlo win59%1.63
Draw22%4.43
Kortrijk win19%5.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Westerlo −0.7553%1.83
Kortrijk −0.7547%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.57
Under39%2.48

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'🟨Thomas Van den Keybus · Westerlo
24'🟨Mathias Fixelles · Westerlo
28'🟨João Silva · Kortrijk
36'🟨Abdelkahar Kadri · Kortrijk
45'⚽ (og)Tsuyoshi Watanabe · Westerlo
60'⚽Kyan Vaesen · Westerlo
63'⚽Massimo Bruno · Kortrijk
68'🟨Bryan Reynolds · Westerlo
73'⚽Kyan Vaesen · Westerlo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots19
7On target6
7Corners7
9Fouls10
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricWesterloKortrijk
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
box share (last 5)0.640.60
cards avg (last 5)1.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHet Kuipje
coach days618.00130.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.204.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.412.08
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.12
dominance (last 5)0.450.53
elo1551.081442.76
elo momentum (last 5)24.5012.77
eye test v1-0.100.13
eye trend v1-0.390.12
first sub minute (last 10)61.4060.30
form points (last 5)8.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.171.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.600.20
keeper form v1—0.63
league points45.0030.00
league rank8.0016.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.003.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2072.00
possession avg (last 5)49.2051.20
rest days6.907.09
scorer concentration0.190.23
season ppg1.450.97
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.001.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.4012.00
skill v10.28-0.32
sot against avg (last 5)5.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.60
squad age26.8326.40
state index0.18-0.27
sterile dominance v10.39-0.08
threat rate (last 10)0.240.25
threat rate (last 3)0.200.27
threat rate (last 5)0.210.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80