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AS Eupen 2–2 Club Brugge

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 · Sat, Feb 25, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: B. Van Driessche

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge win50%1.96
Draw26%3.72
AS Eupen win24%4.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AS Eupen +0.551%1.93
Club Brugge +0.549%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.88
Under49%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽ (pen)Stef Peeters · AS Eupen
13'⚽Abu Francis · Club Brugge
17'🟥Brandon Baiye · AS Eupen
28'⚽Konan N'Dri · AS Eupen
39'⚽Ayase Ueda · Club Brugge
41'🟨Charles Vanhoutte · Club Brugge
90'🟨Stef Peeters · AS Eupen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
7Shots14
3On target4
4Corners6
10Fouls13
1Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAS EupenClub Brugge
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
box share (last 5)0.530.58
cards avg (last 5)2.401.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadion am Kehrweg
coach days86.00177.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.804.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.204.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.408.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.204.09
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.05
dominance (last 5)0.350.49
elo1457.911646.48
elo momentum (last 5)3.893.36
eye test v1-0.990.54
eye trend v1-0.420.45
first sub minute (last 10)45.4067.30
form points (last 5)5.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.571.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.30
keeper form v10.690.76
league points32.0079.00
league rank13.001.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet9.002.00
matches since win1.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.4053.40
possession avg (last 5)41.2042.80
rest days7.096.20
scorer concentration0.240.29
season ppg1.101.52
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.60-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)8.0010.00
skill v1-0.67-2.50
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.504.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.006.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.606.00
squad age24.8822.92
state index-0.480.11
sterile dominance v1-0.09-2.09
threat rate (last 10)0.220.29
threat rate (last 3)0.170.42
threat rate (last 5)0.190.35
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.80