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AS Eupen 1–1 Genk

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 · Wed, Feb 1, 05:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Put

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genk win61%1.55
Draw23%4.27
AS Eupen win16%6.56

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genk +151%1.92
AS Eupen +149%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.68
Under43%2.27

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽Joseph Paintsil · Genk
22'🟨Mbwana Samatta · Genk
25'🟨Aziz Ouattara Mohammed · Genk
26'⚽ (pen)Stef Peeters · AS Eupen
31'🟨Stef Peeters · AS Eupen
36'🟨Smail Prevljak · AS Eupen
38'🟨Teddy Alloh · AS Eupen
38'🟨Joseph Paintsil · Genk
44'🟨Boris Lambert · AS Eupen
55'🟨Gary Magnee · AS Eupen
61'🟨Gerardo Arteaga · Genk

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
10Shots14
4On target5
3Corners7
15Fouls13
5Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAS EupenGenk
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.48
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.49
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.580.77
cards avg (last 5)1.200.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadion am Kehrweg
coach days62.00276.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.21
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.00-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.805.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.551.89
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.07
dominance (last 5)0.410.53
elo1445.411772.55
elo momentum (last 5)-23.9817.91
eye test v1-0.450.54
eye trend v1-0.30-0.41
first sub minute (last 10)53.5069.10
form points (last 5)2.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.002.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.351.26
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.70
keeper form v10.640.83
league points27.0064.00
league rank15.002.00
matches since blank3.005.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2081.00
possession avg (last 5)44.8049.60
rest days4.922.91
scorer concentration0.220.25
season ppg1.082.56
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.200.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.4011.00
skill v1-0.460.37
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.306.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.405.40
squad age23.9424.72
state index-0.761.23
sterile dominance v1-0.100.32
threat rate (last 10)0.260.25
threat rate (last 3)0.180.21
threat rate (last 5)0.220.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.802.40