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Genk 4–0 Seraing United

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 · Sun, Jan 29, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: W. De Cremer

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genk win78%1.22
Draw15%6.55
Seraing United win7%15.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genk −1.7552%1.88
Seraing United −1.7548%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.55
Under39%2.52

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽ (pen)Paul Onuachu · Genk
14'⚽Mike Trésor · Genk
60'⚽Paul Onuachu · Genk
61'🟨Mathieu Cachbach · Seraing United
62'🟨Marvin Tshibuabua · Seraing United
64'⚽Joseph Paintsil · Genk

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
12Shots6
9On target0
3Corners4
7Fouls15
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGenkSeraing United
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.720.46
cards avg (last 5)1.003.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCegeka Arena
coach days273.00120.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-3.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.807.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.204.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.911.79
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.08
dominance (last 5)0.500.33
elo1769.861384.85
elo momentum (last 5)11.34-7.10
eye test v10.10-0.75
eye trend v1-0.380.58
first sub minute (last 10)68.7052.00
form points (last 5)12.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.620.79
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.700.15
keeper form v1—0.60
league points61.0015.00
league rank2.0019.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.0013.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.8067.00
possession avg (last 5)48.8040.00
rest days12.017.21
scorer concentration0.240.21
season ppg2.540.63
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.40-8.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.208.20
skill v10.30-1.50
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.202.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.20
squad age24.5724.77
state index1.12-0.82
sterile dominance v10.22-0.64
threat rate (last 10)0.260.18
threat rate (last 3)0.210.26
threat rate (last 5)0.230.21
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.60