⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

St. Gilloise 2–0 Antwerp

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 · Sun, Jan 15, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: N. Laforge

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St. Gilloise win45%2.15
Draw28%3.43
Antwerp win27%3.72

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St. Gilloise −0.2553%1.81
Antwerp −0.2547%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.92
Over49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'🟨Jürgen Ekkelenkamp · Antwerp
31'🟨Dante Vanzeir · St. Gilloise
34'⚽Dante Vanzeir · St. Gilloise
37'🟨Siebe Van Der Heyden · St. Gilloise
56'🟨Toby Alderweireld · Antwerp
57'🟨Calvin Stengs · Antwerp
75'🟨Victor Okoh Boniface · St. Gilloise
75'🟨Vincent Janssen · Antwerp
76'⚽ (pen)Teddy Teuma · St. Gilloise
79'🟨Koki Machida · St. Gilloise
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
17Shots7
6On target5
8Corners9
13Fouls11
5Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSt. GilloiseAntwerp
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.49
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.730.58
cards avg (last 5)2.801.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Joseph Mariën
Bart Nieuwkoop
· St. Gilloise
coach days228.00259.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.11
corner diff avg (last 5)3.001.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.203.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.204.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.951.78
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.13
dominance (last 5)0.650.62
elo1782.791691.52
elo momentum (last 5)2.8912.83
eye test v10.610.39
eye trend v10.430.48
first sub minute (last 10)56.5058.90
form points (last 5)10.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.941.18
h2 goals (last 10)1.901.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.50
keeper form v10.690.56
league points46.0043.00
league rank3.004.00
matches since blank4.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6081.40
possession avg (last 5)55.2052.80
rest days7.007.91
scorer concentration0.260.23
season ppg2.192.05
shot diff avg (last 5)7.805.00
shots for avg (last 5)16.8013.00
skill v10.520.62
sot against avg (last 5)3.002.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.004.40
sot for avg (last 3)7.676.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.205.00
squad age25.4524.34
state index0.980.60
sterile dominance v10.010.41
threat rate (last 10)0.270.25
threat rate (last 3)0.300.25
threat rate (last 5)0.290.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.60