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Mechelen 2–1 Oostende

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 · Sat, Jan 14, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: J. Boterberg

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mechelen win55%1.75
Draw24%4.13
Oostende win21%4.78

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mechelen −0.7552%1.89
Oostende −0.7548%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.65
Under42%2.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'🟨Matej Rodin · Oostende
40'⚽Alessio Da Cruz · Mechelen
45'🟨David Bates · Mechelen
63'⚽Nick Bätzner · Oostende
70'⚽David Bates · Mechelen
76'🟥Adedapo Awokoya-Mebude · Oostende

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
16Shots14
6On target4
10Corners1
6Fouls17
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMechelenOostende
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.14
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.550.65
cards avg (last 5)2.203.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne
coach days105.0074.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.11
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.205.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.404.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.162.55
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.30
dominance (last 5)0.530.47
elo1526.681421.86
elo momentum (last 5)-3.83-24.92
eye test v10.44-0.73
eye trend v1-0.16-0.64
first sub minute (last 10)64.3050.60
form points (last 5)5.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-2.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.603.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.511.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.620.54
league points23.0017.00
league rank14.0018.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.0012.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.2070.00
possession avg (last 5)59.6045.40
rest days6.097.00
scorer concentration0.240.21
season ppg1.100.81
shot diff avg (last 5)2.800.00
shots for avg (last 5)15.8011.20
skill v11.04-0.88
sot against avg (last 5)5.405.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.671.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.20
squad age27.1324.72
state index0.07-1.17
sterile dominance v11.04-0.41
threat rate (last 10)0.230.24
threat rate (last 3)0.170.19
threat rate (last 5)0.200.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.00