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Club Brugge 0–1 Westerlo

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 Β· Sat, Jan 7, 05:15 PM UTC Β· ref: W. De Cremer

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge win43%2.26
Westerlo win30%3.20
Draw27%3.63

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Westerlo βˆ’0.2551%1.93
Club Brugge βˆ’0.2549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.78
Under46%2.11

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽ (pen)Nacer Chadli · Westerlo
19'🟨Mathias Fixelles · Westerlo
23'🟨Ravil Tagir · Westerlo
28'🟨Senna Miangue · Club Brugge
41'🟨Halil Akbunar · Westerlo

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
11Shots4
5On target2
6Corners4
8Fouls9
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricClub BruggeWesterlo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
box share (last 5)0.650.63
cards avg (last 5)4.402.20
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueJan Breydelstadion
coach days128.00555.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.21
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.20-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.005.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.804.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.901.45
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.09
dominance (last 5)0.440.53
elo1664.841528.08
elo momentum (last 5)-11.9127.73
eye test v1-0.190.43
eye trend v1-0.630.13
first sub minute (last 10)59.9059.10
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.201.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.42
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.650.45
keeper form v10.740.62
league points60.0030.00
league rank1.008.00
matches since blank4.0012.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)58.2081.20
possession avg (last 5)39.6056.00
rest days12.2010.93
scorer concentration0.290.26
season ppg1.671.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.200.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.0013.60
skill v1-2.300.81
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.004.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.00
squad age23.1126.04
state index0.210.60
sterile dominance v1-1.840.49
threat rate (last 10)0.340.22
threat rate (last 3)0.240.25
threat rate (last 5)0.320.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.202.00