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Oostende 1–2 Seraing United

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 · Sat, Jan 7, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: N. Laforge

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oostende win52%1.88
Draw26%3.80
Seraing United win22%4.49

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Seraing United −0.7553%1.83
Oostende −0.7547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.92
Over49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Nick Bätzner · Oostende
5'🟨Moustapha Mbow · Seraing United
20'🟨Sandro Trémoulet · Seraing United
36'🟨Sami Lahssaini · Seraing United
38'🟨Nick Bätzner · Oostende
44'⚽Steve Mvoué · Seraing United
56'🟨Thierry Ambrose · Oostende
70'🟨Junior Marsoni Sambu Mansoni​ · Seraing United
73'🟨Osaze Urhoghide · Oostende
75'⚽Vagner Dias · Seraing United
80'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
17Shots4
3On target2
5Corners2
21Fouls20
6Yellow cards5
2Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOostendeSeraing United
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.670.44
cards avg (last 5)2.203.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueDiaz Arena
Christophe Lepoint
· Seraing United
81'🟨Osaze Urhoghide · Oostende
81'🟥Osaze Urhoghide · Oostende
83'🟥Robbie D'Haese · Oostende
85'🟨Anton Tanghe · Oostende
85'🟨Daniel Opare · Seraing United
88'🟨Indy Boonen · Oostende
coach days67.0098.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.40-6.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.8010.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.404.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.661.43
defensive leak (last 5)0.230.14
dominance (last 5)0.420.30
elo1435.001382.17
elo momentum (last 5)-14.54-41.09
eye test v1-0.59-1.31
eye trend v1-0.29-0.16
first sub minute (last 10)48.5054.00
form points (last 5)3.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.20-2.60
goals against avg (last 5)3.603.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
league points17.0011.00
league rank16.0019.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet11.009.00
matches since win2.009.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.2074.80
possession avg (last 5)41.6041.00
rest days12.0914.99
scorer concentration0.220.27
season ppg0.850.55
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.40-9.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.407.00
skill v1-1.20-0.74
sot against avg (last 5)5.406.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.902.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.331.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.601.80
squad age24.9124.52
state index-0.77-1.59
sterile dominance v1-0.500.05
threat rate (last 10)0.240.19
threat rate (last 3)0.240.14
threat rate (last 5)0.220.17
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80