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Waregem 5–5 AS Eupen

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 · Sat, Nov 12, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: N. Verboomen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Waregem win43%2.30
AS Eupen win32%3.09
Draw25%4.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AS Eupen −0.2550%1.93
Waregem −0.2550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.63
Under40%2.37

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Konan N'Dri · AS Eupen
18'🟨Lasse Vigen Christensen · Waregem
20'⚽Regan Charles-Cook · AS Eupen
24'🟨Mamadou Sangare · Waregem
32'🟨Isaac Nuhu · AS Eupen
39'⚽Zinho Gano · Waregem
41'⚽Isaac Nuhu · AS Eupen
45'⚽ (pen)Zinho Gano · Waregem
56'⚽Boris Lambert · AS Eupen
83'⚽Stan Braem · Waregem
84'🟨Nathan Bitumazala

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score3
19Shots16
9On target8
11Corners2
12Fouls8
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricWaregemAS Eupen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.520.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.510.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.880.55
cards avg (last 5)4.402.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueElindus Arena
· AS Eupen
84'⚽Nnamdi Chinonso Offor · Waregem
88'⚽Alieu Fadera · Waregem
90'⚽Sambou Soumano · AS Eupen
coach days195.0042.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.22
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.001.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.805.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.806.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.942.18
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.17
dominance (last 5)0.460.43
elo1401.401459.56
elo momentum (last 5)18.5940.10
eye test v10.62-0.29
eye trend v10.37-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)53.1055.70
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.251.43
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
keeper form v10.600.64
league points13.0021.00
league rank17.0012.00
matches since blank1.006.00
matches since clean sheet17.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.2078.40
possession avg (last 5)40.6051.20
rest days7.096.90
scorer concentration0.270.27
season ppg0.721.17
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.60-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.8011.60
skill v1-1.180.24
sot against avg (last 5)5.607.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.604.00
squad age24.7024.34
state index-0.500.01
sterile dominance v1-1.080.22
threat rate (last 10)0.230.24
threat rate (last 3)0.210.23
threat rate (last 5)0.290.24
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.60