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Westerlo 6–0 Oostende

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 · Sat, Nov 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Laforge

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Westerlo win52%1.88
Draw24%4.07
Oostende win24%4.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Westerlo −0.551%1.88
Oostende −0.549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.59
Under40%2.45

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Nene Dorgeles · Westerlo
28'⚽Tuur Dierckx · Westerlo
33'🟨Nene Dorgeles · Westerlo
40'⚽ (pen)Nacer Chadli · Westerlo
49'⚽Lyle Foster · Westerlo
53'⚽Lyle Foster · Westerlo
60'🟨Fraser Hornby · Oostende
70'🟨Cameron McGeehan · Oostende
81'⚽Halil Akbunar · Westerlo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
16Shots7
8On target0
5Corners3
8Fouls14
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricWesterloOostende
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.51
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.730.58
cards avg (last 5)2.001.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHet Kuipje
coach days499.0011.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.004.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.992.67
defensive leak (last 5)0.310.21
dominance (last 5)0.520.44
elo1511.111452.63
elo momentum (last 5)-0.365.86
eye test v10.21-0.05
eye trend v1-0.120.13
first sub minute (last 10)58.6052.20
form points (last 5)5.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.402.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.570.85
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.30
keeper form v1—0.62
league points26.0017.00
league rank8.0016.00
matches since blank10.004.00
matches since clean sheet2.009.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.4072.00
possession avg (last 5)53.4041.20
rest days6.005.79
scorer concentration0.260.22
season ppg1.440.94
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.20-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.6010.60
skill v10.83-0.98
sot against avg (last 5)4.005.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.40
squad age24.6725.32
state index-0.33-0.58
sterile dominance v10.64-0.63
threat rate (last 10)0.230.27
threat rate (last 3)0.260.26
threat rate (last 5)0.220.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.40