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Waregem 0–3 Standard

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 · Sat, Oct 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Lardot

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Standard win42%2.30
Waregem win32%3.00
Draw26%3.77

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Waregem +0.2552%1.88
Standard +0.2548%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.72
Under44%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'🟨Alessandro Ciranni · Waregem
15'🟨Philip Zinckernagel · Standard
80'⚽ (pen)Noe Dussenne · Standard
87'⚽Stipe Perica · Standard
90'🟥Ravy Tsouka · Waregem
90'⚽Stipe Perica · Standard

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
6Shots18
3On target7
4Corners10
13Fouls11
1Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricWaregemStandard
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.520.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.780.70
cards avg (last 5)4.202.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueElindus Arena
coach days181.00150.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d5.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.22
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.023.46
defensive leak (last 5)0.230.07
dominance (last 5)0.530.40
elo1409.561558.40
elo momentum (last 5)-0.3322.50
eye test v10.11-0.71
eye trend v10.89-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)54.0051.40
form points (last 5)6.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.801.00
goals against avg (last 5)3.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.60
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.35
keeper form v10.590.74
league points12.0028.00
league rank17.006.00
matches since blank5.001.00
matches since clean sheet15.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.2082.20
possession avg (last 5)45.2052.60
rest days5.795.90
scorer concentration0.290.24
season ppg0.751.75
shot diff avg (last 5)1.40-3.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.408.00
skill v1-0.520.68
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.90
sot for avg (last 3)6.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.402.60
squad age25.0624.88
state index-0.680.34
sterile dominance v1-0.561.00
threat rate (last 10)0.210.23
threat rate (last 3)0.310.19
threat rate (last 5)0.270.16
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.80